DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 May 9, 2024 3%
No 99% Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 May 9, 2024 97%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 May 9, 2024 3%
No 100% Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 May 9, 2024 97%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 09, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 3% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 10% 11%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 13, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 12% Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 Jul 13, 2024 14%
No 88% Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 Jul 13, 2024 86%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024 Jul 25, 2024 0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 4%
No 94% 96%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 2%
No 96% 98%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 4%
No 93% 96%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 8%
No 96% 92%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 2% 2%
Oman 2% 2%
Qatar 1% 2%
Saudi Arabia 3% 5%
Tunisia 1% 1%
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