Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 01:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 01:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Latvia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 3% | -2% | -4% |
No | 99% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +4% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 94% | 95% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
No | 97% | 96% | +1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Aug 3, 2024 | 6% | +2% | -2% |
No | 92% | May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 | Aug 3, 2024 | 94% | -2% | +2% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:24AM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 03, 2024 09:24AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 11% | -9% | -3% |
No | 98% | 89% | +9% | +3% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:15AM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 06, 2024 01:15AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025 | Aug 6, 2024 | 8% | -4% | -5% |
No | 96% | May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025 | Aug 6, 2024 | 92% | +4% | +5% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:17AM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 06, 2024 01:17AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:27AM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 06, 2024 01:27AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 99% | 96% | +3% | +1% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 13, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +0% |
No | 99% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +0% |