Confirmed previous forecast
-1.10162
Relative Brier Score
1233
Forecasts
86
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 29 | 434 | 119 | 1233 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 25 | 49 | 27 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6 | 86 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
EA College Tournament,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+3%)
Yes
97%
(-3%)
No
Updating forecasting error
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-11%)
Yes
100%
(+11%)
No
More likely military collaspes and elections are held than the military holding elections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
94%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Estonia
2%
Latvia
2%
Lithuania
Highly unlikely and easier non-Nato targets that will likely come before / if at all. Putin still feels sore about Nato expansion, but even by his standards this would likely be too higher an act of brinksmanship.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
0%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Only really considering Moldova in this timeframe given that the others would represent a much larger military operation and loss of manpower in Ukraine is relevant. Putin an INTJ and will be planning next steps after Ukraine, but 2027 feels too short.
Files
Time