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sai_39

Saicharan Ritwik Chinni
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-0.00002

Relative Brier Score

119

Forecasts

12

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 27 119 119 119
Comments 0 1 4 4 4
Questions Forecasted 2 24 29 29 29
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 12 12 12
 Definitions
New Prediction

Lowering with time.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian wants to mend relations with the West. Leaving the JCPOA right now would strain the relations and would risk some form of retaliation, mostly further sanctions. 

And even the time remaining is really less. Going all out low.

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New Badge
sai_39
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Aug 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
48%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
52%
More than or equal to 28%

The month wise revenues shares so far have been:  26.56%, 27.36%, 27.69%, 28.07%, 29.11%, 31.19%. The overall share throughout the year (so far) is at 28.43% and there has been a consistent increase from January till June.  PDF

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New Prediction
sai_39
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025

Feels impossible given the current situation.

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New Prediction

Iran would likely avoid any sanctions/consequences at this point. 

nytimes

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New Prediction
sai_39
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-2%)
Yes
100% (+2%)
No

Lowering still.

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New Badge
sai_39
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 25 questions!
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
99%
No
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025

Starting low. 

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