Confirmed previous forecast
-0.136812
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 53 | 30 | 112 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Yes
79%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
3%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Yes
79%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
3%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 3, 2024 03:21AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files