Comment deleted on Aug 31, 2024 09:50PM UTC
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 26 | 390 | 213 | 1040 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 24 | 60 | 39 | 150 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 71 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(-13%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
62%
(+13%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
Moving closer to the crowd. It seems like the threats from a month ago have cooled down, but there is still a lot of tension.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast. My small updates cancel each other out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-3%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
The Kursk invasion by Ukraine may divert Russia's attention away from doing another invasion. That, in combination with the difficulty Russia has at recruiting enough troops, makes me lower my forecasts for all countries. I'm not going down as much in Georgia because of the interesting info shared by @cmeinel : https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/138646
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
3%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Confirming.