Confirmed previous forecast
0.247803
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 64 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2024 05:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
40%
No
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Houthi rebels have the means, will, and ability to execute an attack against civil and military targets in the Red Sea. Being a high traffic area where it is difficult to fully monitor and prevent any attack, there is a high likelihood the rebels are able to launch an attack on at least one vessel in the next 6 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If tensions in the region take a turn for the worse or other actors get more involved with monitoring/positioning in the region, the rebels may be under too much focus to successfully carry out an attack.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Kuwait
20%
(0%)
Oman
25%
(0%)
Qatar
35%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
10%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Myanmar is facing increasing pressure from ASEAN and the international community to hold the democratic elections, but the resistance in the junta seems to point to an ability to hold onto power without the democratic elections.
Why might you be wrong?
If the junta faces internal or external pressures that cause a premature collapse it may trigger elections.