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Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)

Started Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
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The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). Militant groups in the region have already started launching rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria (AP News) The U.S. responded with airstrikes targeting the militias in eastern Syria, and the militias responded with a drone attack against U.S. forces in western Iraq (AP News, New York Times). U.S. government officials have warned Iran to stop the attacks, but Iranian officials claim that the attacks are from groups that oppose “the U.S. presence in the region” and are the result of “wrong American policies” (Time, Times of Israel).

Iran previously launched a ballistic missile attack against U.S. troops in Iraq in 2020 in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani (AP News, BBC).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if U.S. Government officials (e.g., the President or Department of Defense officials) state with reasonable confidence that Iran has launched missiles or conducted an airstrike targeting U.S. forces. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as statements from the U.S. government officials indicate that they were targeting U.S. forces. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 217
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
Jim
-0.0008
2.
mbbernstein
-0.0008
3.
belikewater
-0.0008
4.
Plataea479
-0.0008
5.
ncm
-0.000774

Consensus Trend

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