Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)
Closed Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). Militant groups in the region have already started launching rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria (AP News) The U.S. responded with airstrikes targeting the militias in eastern Syria, and the militias responded with a drone attack against U.S. forces in western Iraq (AP News, New York Times). U.S. government officials have warned Iran to stop the attacks, but Iranian officials claim that the attacks are from groups that oppose “the U.S. presence in the region” and are the result of “wrong American policies” (Time, Times of Israel).
This question is a resolved time period from Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | |
No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 71 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 143 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 217 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |