vpsays

I think a lot of Maduro's aggression has been to show strength ahead of the presidential elections. But, with the election results now being disputed by the opposition and other countries, an attack by Maduro would put securing the presidency at risk.  

An attack would rally US, UK, French , and other international support for Guyana, incite heavier sanctions on an economically fragile Venezuela, and would weaken Maduro's overall hold on power. There isn't enough oil in Guyana or interest for Russia and China to risk supporting Maduro.

Other reason why a ground invasion is unlikely:  "a full-scale ground invasion is not practical, experts say, since much of the Essequibo frontier with Venezuela is near-impenetrable rain forest and swamps. That leaves the faint possibility of an air or marine assault." (LA Times)

An attack on Guyanese oil wells also seems unlikely, but perhaps logistically more probable. 

I don't think that Venezuela will relinquish claim or that Guyana agrees to cede on Essequibo unless prompted by some form of an attack that precedes negotiations.  

He's maintained a strong hold on the presidency that is likely to last beyond 2025 despite challenges against him (repercussions from war in Ukraine, the Wagner Group uprising, death of Nevalny, etc). 

Khamenei still holds significant power across all branches of government, so it's unlikely he flees or is ousted due to domestic turmoil. I'm forecasting a very small chance this happens for two reasons: 1) His successor is named while he's still living, though that's a complex process and no clear front-runner. 2) Death given his age and health issues reported in 2022, though he's been seen out more publicly in the last year.