NVIDIA is still in 3rd but their market cap has again dropped a bit (now $2.629 T), and decreased more than Apple ($3.381 T) and MSFT ($3.035). Decreasing slightly.
-0.265383
Relative Brier Score
261
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 31 | 408 | 261 | 1361 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 89 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 24 | 59 | 42 | 211 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-1%)
Yes
87%
(+1%)
No
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Oct 6, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+2%)
Yes
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
90%
(-2%)
No
Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025
Increasingly slightly due to crowd consensus
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New Badge
Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
97%
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Going just slightly above the crowd because this has happened before (in 2020, as pointed out in the background info) and the general continued fighting and tensions in the region could boil over and make this specific thing more likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Starting out with 1% due to general uncertainty, but very unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(-2%)
Yes
86%
(+2%)
No
Decreasing slightly, NVIDIA has had a kind of wild week. I heard on NPR today (unfortunately I can't find the clip) that they've been doing well because of the AI boom and how they basically have no competition, but someone made a comment along the lines of "trees can't grow to the moon" -- pointing out you can only have so much growth, and I think NVIDIA may be hitting that limit soon. Since a few days ago they have already slipped into 3rd place ($2.928) after Apple (1st with $3.481) and Microsoft (2nd with $3.100). I'm going slightly below the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(+6%)
Yes
84%
(-6%)
No
Increasing due to NVIDIA moving into the #2 spot (as of 8/27/24, $3.155 T vs. Apple at #1 with $3.466 T). That's not a huge difference but I'm less bullish on this than others, though. They are not that far ahead MSFT's #3 at $3.076 T and there are more 9 months to go still.
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Why do you think you're right?
It seems like this process is stalled for now and unlikely to change unless there's something big that happens, like major developments in the Israel conflict.
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not as familiar with parliamentary systems -- we don't have this type of government in the US.