A lot of good points by @SOUZACaio here. The Israeli appetite for war has its limits.
-0.483828
Relative Brier Score
193
Forecasts
64
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 21 | 410 | 193 | 1115 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 265 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 16 | 67 | 38 | 166 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 12 | 152 | 64 | 452 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-17%)
Yes
Sep 2, 2024 to Mar 2, 2025
80%
(+17%)
No
Sep 2, 2024 to Mar 2, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
4%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
The base rate is a decent starting position, so I'll begin there. From what I have read the US State Department has been making a renewed effort in Africa, and from its history China doesn't have a lot of experience with this sort of diplomacy so will be facing an uphill battle in the face of this. Djibouti from what it seems to me was a different era, the high water mark of when the US was focused on things like pushing human rights and ceded a lot of the African countries to China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Maybe 1 in 3. The general strike and Yair Lapid's statement to me seem to indicate that the Israeli public's patience for a prolonged war is not going to be infinite. On the other hand, there are under 3 months remaining for this to happen.
Why might you be wrong?