Confirmed previous forecast
-0.851339
Relative Brier Score
560
Forecasts
167
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 107 | 9 | 1184 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 159 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 330 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
98%
(+1%)
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Bit down.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-8%)
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
96%
(+8%)
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Things seem calmer.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(0%)
Yes
45%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(-26%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Way off.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-3%)
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
adjsut down
Files
Seems extremely unlikely right now.