0.986712
Relative Brier Score
315
Forecasts
38
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 7 | 35 | 525 | 315 | 2097 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | 139 |
Questions Forecasted | 7 | 35 | 90 | 60 | 236 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 56 | 38 | 280 |
Definitions |
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
Reducing as tensions ease
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
The first bins are extremely unlikely, so I'll ignore them to maximize the latter two. Also, given the data we currently have about the 2024 revenue, it seems like we are headed for a +28% year. Still maintaining a decently big percentage in case we see a change in dynamic in the last two quarters.
The Americas have seen increased production and revenue due to the decoupling from the overdependence developed in the past from semiconductors of Asia-Pacific.
I would expect that the number will continue to grow in the region, with companies choosing and being drawn to relocate production and investment to the US and the Americas overall.
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
Following the incredible forecast that @Jim developed here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/138262
I am also taking @cmeinel ´s rationale into account in the same comment thread.
Continuing the discussion here
![](https://www.infer-pub.com/rails/active_storage/representations/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBMXBWQVE9PSIsImV4cCI6IjIwMjQtMDktMTVUMDE6NTU6NDcuMDA0WiIsInB1ciI6ImJsb2JfaWQifX0=--139e559764969e59ccad6be7204e97f66f36a601/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCem9MWm05eWJXRjBTU0lJY0c1bkJqb0dSVlE2RW5KbGMybDZaVjkwYjE5bWFYUmJCMmx2YVc4PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoidmFyaWF0aW9uIn19--ece71356bf9cbbc14072e1c306fb6b0cb8ccd483/power-forecaster.png)
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Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
![](https://assets.infer-pub.com/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
Backing down a bit more as negotiations are nowhere to be seen. We are still getting reports of meetings takin place but there are not reports of a possible ceasefire coming in the next weeks, this might take a while longer.
Reducing.