Confirmed previous forecast
0.986712
Relative Brier Score
315
Forecasts
38
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 35 | 525 | 315 | 2097 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | 139 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 35 | 90 | 60 | 236 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 56 | 38 | 280 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Reducing as tensions ease
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
30%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
70%
More than or equal to 28%
The first bins are extremely unlikely, so I'll ignore them to maximize the latter two. Also, given the data we currently have about the 2024 revenue, it seems like we are headed for a +28% year. Still maintaining a decently big percentage in case we see a change in dynamic in the last two quarters.
The Americas have seen increased production and revenue due to the decoupling from the overdependence developed in the past from semiconductors of Asia-Pacific.
I would expect that the number will continue to grow in the region, with companies choosing and being drawn to relocate production and investment to the US and the Americas overall.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Following the incredible forecast that @Jim developed here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/138262
I am also taking @cmeinel ´s rationale into account in the same comment thread.
Files
Continuing the discussion here
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Aug 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(-2%)
Yes
62%
(+2%)
No
Backing down a bit more as negotiations are nowhere to be seen. We are still getting reports of meetings takin place but there are not reports of a possible ceasefire coming in the next weeks, this might take a while longer.
Files
Reducing.