Confirmed previous forecast
0.328989
Relative Brier Score
209
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 26 | 268 | 209 | 984 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 37 | 35 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 26 | 63 | 55 | 195 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 56 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Yes
55%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
It is a total and definite No...at least thinking on leaving because he decides to leave the position.---
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
95%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
0%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
(+2%)
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
A total no this time....not feasible in this moment according to all the news and sources we can verify right now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
I am giving it a very low probability considering data about the companies in the top of the list of Market Cap and considering as well the timeframe (May 2025) is too short to generate a change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
80%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
20%
More than or equal to 28%
I will be quite conservatite with my forecast in this moment in terms of percentage of the global semiconductor revenue market share for Americas Region. I do this because it seems that we are not moving as fast as expected in this field
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
15%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Well, with Venezuela, sometimes there are some issues to correctly predict the behaviour of its Government. Right now, considering what is happening right now and the Political turnmoil that the country is facing, i will add a small probability to any action related to Guyana
Files