Don't see any realistic chance of this. h/t @Wooster highlighting that they have announced plans for November 2025
-0.226734
Relative Brier Score
79
Forecasts
25
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(+4%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
94%
(-4%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Moving up a bit based on it being announced that the new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is planning his first foreign visit to be to Iraq.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(+1%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
97%
(-1%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Moving up a bit, based on comments by @ScottEastman @JonathanMann and @404_NOT_FOUND
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
(+4%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
34%
(-4%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Plugging the base rate data since 2020 into a Poisson model gives a 73% probability of a successful coup in the next 6 months.
Applying some reasonable weightings to account for the lack of successful coups in recent months gives a probability of around 55% (very sensitive to my subjective judgment)
Going to go somewhere in the middle at 66%, partly because there have been many attempted (failed) coups recently, so there is still a lot of latent coup-pressure, just they are not yet successful.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
62%
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
38%
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Comment deleted on Aug 31, 2024 09:07PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
In the United States, according to actuarial tables, a 71 year old man would have about a 2.3% chance of dying in this period.
Healthcare and life expectancy in Russia is considerably worse, but Putin is the president and presumably has access to very good healthcare.
Over the years there has been some reporting on his possible ill-health, which I don't attach zero credence to (I think some type of neurological disease is probable, but it doesn't seem to be advancing rapidly in a way that would greatly increase the chances of him leaving office in the next year).
Then there is also some political risk, if the Russian war in Ukraine turns out very badly for him.
For these reasons I will go up from the base rate (actuarial tables) by a couple of percentage points.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
They don't and won't have the capability.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 4, 2024 11:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
58%
(+3%)
Yes
Aug 4, 2024 to Feb 4, 2025
42%
(-3%)
No
Aug 4, 2024 to Feb 4, 2025
It's looking a bit more likely.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80xxeqel5po
These are the types of signals you would expect to see in advance of a war.
Files
I thought that it would probably have happened by now if it was going to happen, still a decent chance it could happen in September.
Hezbollah don't look keen on further escalation into a full war. Israel kind of have their hands full.