Plataea479

He has 2 sons Ivan and VP Jr. So he is planning to stay on for a long time to secure his successors future. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/05/putin-has-two-secret-sons-who-love-disney/

And they like Disney hope for  the future. I guess 

Hamas admits it has 30 hostages total alive. The more it kills the less it has to trade for Palestinians in jail https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-threats-to-kill-hostages-could-weaken-groups-hand-in-negotiations-8c2c14f7?st=zetvhcbgkv66cox

But Netanyahu has made a political and diplomatic point. Hamas cannot be removed from political and military control without occupation of Philadelphi.

He is correct. He has half of Israelis behind him and after 3 inconclusive elections 60 to 60 Knessets he won 66. His mandate does not end for 2 years.

I must say he would be a fool to call for new elections. Sinwar may stay understand forever and he has a country to run with 3 active enemies firing in Israel. Iran and its proxies fire missiles at Israel every day

I don't see Sinwar or Netanyahu agreeing so Sinwar sits in a tunnel forever.

I don't understand how the Ukrainians can commit 20,000 assault units to a diversion at best and an unsuccessful attempt to deplete Russsian forces at the point of attack.

It's easy to second guess but if Ukraine moved it's assault teams to attack Vovchansk from behind they could capture a big pocket and relieve Kharkiv and threaten Belgorad which has strategic Russian road and rail to supply Donbass

That's about 200 kilometers. It took Patton 2 to  3  days to march North to relieve Bastogne and to collapse German offensive in Battle of Bulge

Now Ukraine has railroads from Kharkiv to Prokovsk and if they sent 20,000 troops to cut off the Russian salient east of Prokovsk and isolate destroy or capture the Russian forces and advance on Addivka.

That's called the mass of maneuver and deploying it at the point of enemy attack will rebuff any assault

By sending it's forces into Kursk Ukraine occupied 200 sq miles in a collateral theater. You know Grant and Sherman used their railroads to advance to Chattanooga from VIcksburg from July 4 1863. And to advance to Savannah. In WW I the French General Gallieni sent Paris Garrison troops to stop Germans 20 miles from Paris.

If Ukraine could utilize its tanks armored personnel and troops to protect Kharkiv and Pokrovsk they could stop Russia for the year. Yes they occupied 200 Sq miles in Kursk. But this year Putin occupied the same amount of disputed Donestsk province. I'm not sure it's a good trade when you give up strategic positions like Chasi Yar and Petrovsk. The Ukrainian better get going because next time the Russians can break through.

I sure hope it works out for them. It's unconventional but of limited utility when you are losing territory.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/02/netanyahu-will-agree-ceasefire-only-if-israeli-streets-burn/

A quote from A Likud  minister in cabinet probably Gallant.

Meanest Hamas insists that IDF evacuate all of Gaza especially the Philadelphi corridor.

There is a Israel security cabinet tonight. If either Hamas or Israel refuse the last offer Egypt Hamas and US will abandon mediation. Netanyahu has a 4 week window to make or break any deal until Knesset reconvenes after October 12 after the Jewish New Year holidays in early October. 

Seeks like Netanyahu would take  a mediation offer to break it before or after the Jewish New Year. Even if Hamas agreed there will be a new list of hostages  to be exchanged  by  Hamas.

Now the list could be down to 30. That would be a bad sign and would indicate that Israel may break the cease fire without notice. But  whatever exchange of hostages takes place Netanyahu will have opportunity to restart war anytime and won't wait 6 weeks. He is opportunistic enough to get 20 hostages back now or 30 but the chances of 36 hostages coming out in 6 weeks are not good.

https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-817404 and Hamas is releasing a video the last 6 hostages killed " goodbye messages" 

Sinwar clearly plans to mobilize more protests. But showing video of the last 6 hostages saying it's Netanyahu fault will not help the peace process or the vaccination of children for polio in Gaxa.

An Israeli defense analyst reported as follows and it describes the reality on the ground and Israel has not and probably can't eliminate Hamas. It's like a whack a mole. Israel goes in and at great costs to civilians clears a neighborhood of Hamas and withdraw. Then Hamas comes back

See http://www.jpost.com and Hamas clearly understands that the IDF’s control of these areas is preventing Hamas from controlling all of Gaza. Hamas currently controls the central camps area of Gaza; Bureij, Maghazi, Deir al-Balah, and Nuseirat, as well as areas in northern Gaza and Khan Younis. However, Hamas’s control has been partially checked by the IDF control of the corridors in southern Gaza and Netzarim in the center.

Hamas clearly understands that the IDF’s control of these areas is preventing Hamas from controlling all of Gaza. Hamas currently controls the central camps area of Gaza; Bureij, Maghazi, Deir al-Balah, and Nuseirat, as well as areas in northern Gaza and Khan Younis. However, Hamas’s control has been partially checked by the IDF control of the corridors in southern Gaza and Netzarim in the center.

https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-817386

Every country Wagner deals with are dictators or under military rule after coups of elected leaders. It's President is like the Somozas or Duvaliers, a dictator of a family of dictators who has ruled 46 years. There is a lot of violence in its mountain border regions. The dictator is unpopular and does not have Western support. Dictators and wanna be dictators In Libya, Haftar,  Sudan Hemetti Central African Republic get Wagner Group help to stay in power and Chinese loans to stay in debt

.I would say Togo is at risk  particularly as a deep water port and transport hub with access by road and rail to Sahel run by a dictator for sale. One would think PRC and Russia would be interested in buying a Togo to be their Cuba in Africa

However it is such a small country with literally no state structures with a ring of violence between the coastal plain and mountain routes to the Sahel. It has no industry except gold and Cobalt  mines and is predominantly agricultural. It looks a lot like Central Africa Republic

I estimate the chances at 20 percent for Togo its only a very small very poor country. It is the 10nth poorest country in the world by GDP per capita per World Bank 

https://acleddata.com/2024/07/05/africa-overview-june-2024/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/256547/the-20-countries-with-the-lowest-gdp-per-capita/#:~:text=Burundi%20is%20believed%20to%20have,250%20times%20higher%20than%20Burundi's).

Same list as ACLED same frequency rating  plus Yemen.

Based on this spread overall, Israel Syria Iraq would seem prime candidates for a couple. Syria Libya Sudan are countries that do not have a recognized government or border. Benin and Togo and West Nigeria are a Hotspot.

https://acleddata.com/2024/07/05/africa-overview-june-20249

There is a ring of instability surrounding Nigeria and Togo and Benin. Increased political death and demonstration. If you go to the link you can follow its arc from Somalia Ogaden desert border with Ethiopia through Central Africa Mali Burkino Faso and Niger.

But event notices for political death are increased through out this area. That's because climate change  has caused economic scarcity  and war over resources  and boundaries result.

According to ACLED event analysis I infer  empirically say 2 to 1 there will be a coup.

66 percent coup 66 percent Benin or Togo has a coup 

As s

I'd say there is a 10 percent chance the Netanyahu government will fall in a week. 

Gallant may resign. He called for a security cabinet vote on the Philadelphi corridor issue.

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About The Times of Israel

DM: This means no deal, no freed hostages; PM: That's the decision.

Netanyahu tells ministers he prioritizes Philadelphi over hostages, horrifying Gallant

In shouting match as cabinet backs PM’s demand to keep IDF on Gaza-Egypt border, Netanyahu says only firm stance will enable deal; Gallant tells colleagues they’re condemning hostages to die

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (foreground) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hold a press conference at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, December 16, 2023. (Noam Revkin Fenton/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (foreground) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hold a press conference at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, December 16, 2023. (Noam Revkin Fenton/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday that he was prioritizing his stance of maintaining Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor over saving the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

The stance was shared during a heated security cabinet meeting Thursday night during which the premier had the top ministerial body vote to approve a series of maps drawn up by the IDF, which show how Israel aims to keep its troops deployed in the nine-mile narrow stretch known as the Philadelphi Corridor during the first, six-week phase of the hostage-ceasefire being negotiated.

It was the latest evidence of the divide between Netanyahu and the security establishment. Gallant and the security chiefs have repeatedly pushed Netanyahu for more compromise in the negotiations, particularly regarding the Philadelphi Corridor, fearing that Netanyahu decision means no peace deal.

See Times of Israel. The Knesset is not in session again until September 1 giving Netanyahu some room for approval of a deal.

Given the strike today by Histradut which ends tonight at 6.pm its still unlikely the government will fall or that Netanyahu will change his mind. He probably will play for more time and the war will continue