Base rate analysis on historical data:
- a normal distribution model finds a probability that a future quarter falls below 40% to be extremely close to zero
- a laplace rule of succession method finds 4%
- averaging these with a geometric mean of odds finds a probability very close to zero
I don't think there are significantly changed factors in this period vs the historical data, so I will still with the base rate.The overall trend in the historical data is also generally positive, most recently at 69%
Base rate analysis on historical data:
- a normal distribution model finds a probability that a future quarter falls below 40% to be extremely close to zero
- a laplace rule of succession method finds 4%
- averaging these with a geometric mean of odds finds a probability very close to zero
I don't think there are significantly changed factors in this period vs the historical data, so I will still with the base rate.
The overall trend in the historical data is also generally positive, most recently at 69%