Confirmed previous forecast
-0.002029
Relative Brier Score
108
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 29 | 441 | 108 | 1222 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 106 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 23 | 48 | 25 | 106 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 86 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 49
10%
(-5%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
3%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files